Lessons from the Fighting in Chad

This past week's renewed fighting in Chad illustrates a number of lessons about African conflict.

First, a recap of the fighting. Over the past week, a convoy of 300 vehicles and men from three Chadian rebel groups based in Sudan made their way nearly unimpeded across 1,000 km of Chad's territory to the capital city of N'Djamena, on the Cameroon border and the gates of the presidential palace in an effort to overthrow the government of President Idriss Deby. The rebels accuse Deby of corruption, embezzling oil profits, and favoritism towards the Zaghawa clan of which he is a member. The Zaghawa make up only 3% of Chad's population, but hold a disproportionate number of government and military positions. After heavy fighting, the rebels were defeated in the capital and are now in the countryside. For the moment, Deby is still in power with the blessing and backing of the French government.

Some thoughts on the matter.

First, this is yet again another indication of the ease with which fighting can spill over borders. The fighting in Darfur has spurred the departure of refugees into northeastern Central African Republic and eastern Chad. The current estimate is 250,000 Sudanese are now taking refuge in Chad. Further, some of the Sudanese rebels in Darfur belong the same clan, Zaghawa, as President Deby, who has given them support and allowed them to use Chad as a base. In turn, the Sudanese government, despite vehement denials, have provided weapons, vehicles, and medical supplies to the Chadian rebels fighting against Deby's government. I don't believe that the rebels in Chad are merely proxies of the Sudanese government, but they are not innocent of involvement in the internal matters in Chad either. Both Chad and Sudan have a stake in each other's civil wars.

Second, the fighting is incredibly low-tech. Neither the Chadian army nor the rebels have planes, helicopters, or armor of any sort. Warfare is based on trucks and machine guns, which allows for mobility across great distances in a short period of time. This type of fighting can be seen across Africa.

Third, French intervention in Africa is alive and kicking. While the Chadian government has only acknowledges French intelligence and logistical support, it is unlikely that government troops could have stopped the rebels by themselves. After all, the rebels made their way across Chad and into the capital. Today, the BBC has reported French soldiers patrolling the streets of N'Djamena and the helicopters bombing rebel positions outside the city, so it is logical to conclude similar action took place during the fighting in the capital.

The commitment of French troops to its former African colonies, is not a new phenomenon. France has maintained strong ties to most of its former colonies since their independence in the 1960s and continues to maintain bases in Gabon, Cote D'Ivoire, Djibouti, Chad, CAR, and Senegal. The visit today of French Defense minister Herve Morin underscores this ongoing commitment.

The last item to consider is the French-backed EUFOR mission which was supposed to deploy to eastern Chad in support of the Darfurian refugees. Sudan obviously views the mission not as a neutral operation but as a threat and while it is speculation to believe Sudan orchestrated a coup against Deby in order to install a government adverse to the EUFOR and thereby prevent its deployment, it is possible that's what the Sudanese government intended.