Ongoing Violence in Darfur

Perhaps lost in the news cycle of this past weekend was renewed attacks by Sudanese government forces on civilians in Darfur, Western Sudan. Attacks against supposed positions of the rebel group, the Justice and Equality Movement, JEM, have led to another influx of refugees, 12,000 this weekend, across the border into eastern Chad. This has prompted the Prime Minister of Chad, Nouradine Delwa Kassire Koumakoye, to announce that Chad cannot absorb any more refugees from Darfur. Simultaneously, the EU peacekeeping mission to eastern Chad, has resumed and claims it will be operational by month's end.

The EUFOR deployment, however, is only a partial measure to alleviate the violence. It is addressing the symptoms of the civil war in Sudan and not addressing the causes. While refugees in camps in Chad may now be safer and worry less about cross border attacks from Sudan, their co-ethnics still in Sudan continue to face the threat of attack from the Sudanese government and their local allies. The EUFOR will not be able to stop the real cause of fighting in Darfur, the policies of the Sudanese government in Khartoum.

The prospects for changing Sudan's policies, however, are slim. Protected by the Chinese veto in the security council, Sudan has been able to continue operations in Darfur without effective international interdiction. The AU peacekeeping force has been largely ineffective and at times attacked by Sudanese militia forces. Further, it is unlikely that a military operation will be undertaken into Sudanese territory to protect Darfurian civilians. Not only is there little strategic interest beyond protecting human rights, logistically a large scale deployment would be a nightmare and it is unlikely that national populations would support sacrificing their soldiers in Western Sudan.

What hope is there then for the victims? To me it seems that pressuring China is the only available option. The likelihood of that succeeding, however, is far from clear.