Hodgepodge

Today's post does not have a central focus but is instead intended to be a roundup of previously discussed issues and a mention of stories in the news with relevance to Africa.

Uganda

Joseph Kony, the leader of the LRA, has demanded that no complete resolution of the conflict is possible in Uganda, unless the government can get the ICC to remove its indictment and warrant for Kony on charges of war crimes. Kony fears that despite Ugandan assurances that alleged war crimes will be dealt with in a national court, the existence of the ICC warrant may still be used to bring him to stand trial in The Hague. This is an extension of the problems discussed earlier of ICC action impeding domestic conflict resolution.

Kenya

Speaking of domestic conflict resolution, today in Kenya President Mwai Kibaki and opposition leader, Raila Odinga, have signed an agreement creating a national unity government with a powerful prime minister position for Odinga. While this is obviously a step in the right direction and I begrudgingly applaud Kofi Annan's mediation, I believe that the fissures caused by the explosion of violence in the country will not be resolved as easily. The road to national ethnic reconciliation between the Kikuyu and other ethnic groups is a long one indeed.

France in Africa

President Nicholas Sarkozy in a speech to the South African parliament has announced that France will revamp the system of defense agreements it has with African nations and make the details of the arrangements transparent. France, he said, does not want to maintain a military presence on the continent indefinitely and seeks first and foremost to help Africa build its own collective security apparatus. Simultaneously, however, Sarkozy announced an initiative to give 10 billion Euros over the next 5 years to Sub-Saharan African countries in bilateral relationships and that French forces will join with South African forces to help reform Central African Republic security forces.

Personally, I am skeptical of Sarkozy's intentions. While France may indeed scale down its military presence from its current bases in Senegal, Gabon, Djibouti, Chad, Cote D'Ivoire, and the CAR, it still considers its former colonies part of La Francophonie and has significant economic interests in the region. That being said, it is unclear if France plans on having its influence diminish just because fewer troops are on the ground.

Southern Sudan

I want to applaud Nicholas Kristof for his opinion piece in today's NY Times about a potential future genocide in Southern Sudan. For as long as the media has focused on Darfur, I have consistently asked why has no attention been paid to Southern Sudan where far more people have been killed over a much longer period of time. I concur with Kristof's concern over the unimplemented peace agreement between the government of Sudan and the SPLA (Southern People's Liberation Army) coming to fruition in the long run. Further, if conflict does indeed restart, I question if Sudan's territorial integrity will hold together the muslim arab north and the black christian and animist south. I also agree that the US can use its influence now to help resolve the problem although I would not be in favor of US troops on the ground should large-scale violence break out again. Kristof's suggestion of a no-fly zone, is in my view strategically unfeasible since Southern Sudan is a 900 miles from the closest US airfield in Djibouti.

Army Field Manual

Finally, tomorrow the US army will be releasing a revised field manual, the first since 9/11. The manual is attracting attention because it recognizes the need for a stability operations doctrine in addition to conventional forms of warfare. Obviously, Iraq and Afghanistan are the impetus for the change but I think that such operations are likely to be launched by AFRICOM as well. This is just something to keep in the back of your mind, if in fact we do see a US military presence on the continent over the next 10-15 years.