Evaluating US Policy Options on the Horn of Africa

On Tuesday, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee held hearings on Evaluating US Policy Options on the Horn of Africa. Two panels testified; the first consisting of government officials, assistant secretary of state for African affairs, Jendayi Frazier, assistant administrator for Africa at USAID, Katherine Almquist, and deputy assistant secretary of defense for African Affairs, Theresa Whalen. The second panel was non-government officials: Dr. David Shinn, adjunct professor at GWU, Lynn Fredericksson, advocacy director for Africa at Amnesty International, and Col. Thomas Dempsey (Ret.) from the US Army Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute.

In this post, I want to summarize their testimonies and then give my own thoughts.

Jendayi Frazier
She outlined the four elements of US policy in Somalia. 1.To encourage political dialogue to move toward transitional elections, 2. Development and humanitarian aid, 3. To facilitate the African Union's peacekeeping mission in Somalia (AMISOM), and 4. Deny terrorists sanctuary.
She noted that Eritrea is fomenting instability region-wide and does not have bilateral relations with the US. Also, the current border dispute between Eritrea and Ethiopia may expand into outright hostilities.
She made mention of the key role played by Djibouti in terms of US interests and that it is likely to become a regional transshipment hub.
And that aid has been given to Somaliland to help conduct elections.

Katherine Almquist
Outlined US regional goals as promoting stability, combating terrorism, advancing democracy, and economic development while addressing humanitarian needs. She mentioned USAID aid efforts in Ethiopia, the absence of USAID in Eritrea by that governments request and the limited operations in Somalia.

Theresa Whalen
Noted the Department of Defense's interests in region: elimination of terrorist safe havens, prevention of arms and human trafficking, and ensuring access to land and sea lanes of communication. Key effort is theatre security cooperation, which is extensive with Ethiopia, non-existent with Eritrea, and limited with Somalia.

The non-government officials set out their own analyses of the region concerned primarily with their areas of expertise. As such, Dr. David Shinn noted that Al-Shabaab, the Islamist Al-Qaeda affiliates in Somalia were gaining strength, Lynn Fredericksson spoke about the human rights violations in the region, the dearth of human rights concern in US Africa policy making, and the need for human rights to play a central role in US diplomacy. Col. Dempsey spoke about the need to foster cooperation between the military, foreign intelligence, and law enforcement communities in Africa in order to combat terrorists. Military options alone he argued will not enjoy success in the long run.

From all of the panelists I got the feeling that they were informed and knew what they wanted to do in the region but there is a wide gulf between what they want and the ability for their recommendations to actually come to fruition. The US can talk about Somalia as much as it wants but the problems run so deep that without addressing the root causes the aid targeting the symptoms will be largely unsuccessful. To achieve any gains in the realm of stability, governance, and development, security is the number one priority. Without it nothing permanent can be achieved. For security to be achieved, however, a massive military presence is necessary, one which no capable country is at present willing to undertake. The US military is not going back to Somalia, and it is disconcerting that the State department believes first that all 8,000 AMISOM troops will ever arrive and second that even if they do that such a small number will be able to affect change. Especially when their arrival is supposed to lead to the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops. So in regards to Somalia, I think its great that the US wants to aid its development but it is wasted effort without security.

Regarding Eritrea, the country is stirring a great deal of trouble by supporting opposition groups in Somalia and Ethiopia. It has essentially snubbed its nose at the UN and kicked out the UNMEE (UN Mission to Ethiopia and Eritrea) peacekeepers. If events continue apace hostilities may once again breakout with Ethiopia.

As for Ethiopia, it seems that the US is very vested and very hopeful about the direction the country is taking. The US is helping out with the military, sees progress in democratic reform, and has taken a soft line in regards to human rights violations. Ethiopia is where long term US policy in the region depends.

As for the non government officials, I don't think Dr. Shinn added much that wasn't already said. Lynn Fredericksson is obviously concerned about human rights, and I believe her assessments that human rights violations in the region are very common and that they are not considered in US policy making are both correct. However, I also think that if not irrelevant, they are not central to US policy and will continue to be sidelined as other primary interests are taken into account. As for Col. Dempsey, I agree with him that targeted hits on terrorist leaders is not going to solve the terrorist problem in the Horn and that on the ground cooperation between military and law enforcement is necessary for effective counter terror operations. What he neglects to consider is that law enforcement is quite difficult when there are no effective laws as in Somalia. At present, there can only be military and intelligence ops. And as for his comparison to working security measures in Liberia, it is a false analogy. Just because they are African states with security problems does not mean the same measures will succeed anymore than measures in Serbia would be the same as Spain just because they are European.

Finally, one last thought. I was struck by the discussion of events in Somaliland. For those who don't know, the northern part of Somalia declared itself an independent republic in 1991 and while the rest of Somalia broke down, it has been largely successful especially since it was never recognized and receives little outside support. Somaliland has often been used as an example for possible solutions to the rest of Somalia. I just found it interesting that while the US does not recognize Somaliland, it does engage with it as a separate entity.